基于ARMA模型与SPC技术的水质监控和预测

Monitoring and Forecasting Water Quality Using ARMA Model and Statistical Process Control

将统计过程控制(SPC)理论和ARMA模型相结合,应用到水质研究领域。目的是展示SPC作为预警工具对地表水水质污染的预警应用,利用ARMA模型作为一个管理工具来预警和减少地表水的污染,这些工具对水质的环境目标、指标及监管要求的实际环境性能进行评估建立有用的指导。结果表明:统计过程控制方法对于地表水质预警是一个潜在的重要途径,并且在污染物浓度严重增加时可以做出快速反应。SPC+ARIMA模型可用来实时监控地表水水质的变化,对于监控水质参数是一个现实可行的技术。

A method based on statistical process control （SPC） theory and ARMA model is applied in water quality research. The objective of this paper is to display the warning application of SPC as early warning tools on surface water quality pollution. The ARMA model as a management tool is to warn and reduce the pollution of surface water. Both tools are used to establish useful guide on the environmental objectives and indicators of water quality, the regulatory requirements for the actual environmental performance assessment. The results show that, statistical process control is a potentially important way for early warning of the surface water quality, and the concentration increasing of the pollutant seriously can be quickly responded. The SPC＋ARIMA model can be used for real-time monitoring the changes of surface water quality, and is a feasible technology for the monitoring of water quality parameters.