基础设施投资规模和经济增长——基于三部门经济增长模型的研究

The Research of Infrastructure Investment Scale and Economic Growth Based on Three-Sector Economic Growth Model

基于一个考虑人力资本外溢、基础设施资本的三部门经济增长模型,本文分析了能让长期居民效用最大化的稳态基础设施存量水平;并根据永续盘存法估算了我国的基础设施和私人资本存量以及根据教育年限法估算了我国的人力资本存量;最后,则利用主成分分析法估算了各种资本的产出弹性。实证研究结果表明,我国基础设施存量在改革开放后进入了快速增长时期,2001年后基础设施存量水平已经超过了稳态基础设施存量水平。

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model where infrastructure capital and human capital are included, and then analyzes the steady - state infrastructure spending based on the models. This paper also measures China＇ s infrastructure capital stock by PIM, and measures human capital stock by the method of School Years. The results show that the infrastructure capital in China has increased rapidly after the reform and opening - up, and it has exceeded the steady - State scale from 2001.