美巴反恐同盟的收益一成本分析——以巴基斯坦为视角

Cost-Benefit Analysis of the U.S.-Pakistan Anti-Terror Alliance:A Pakistani Perspective

美巴反恐同盟中美国居于主导地位,巴基斯坦处于被支配地位,美巴反恐同盟主要服务于美国的国家利益。巴基斯坦加入以美国为首的反恐同盟是对所面临的收益—成本结构进行分析后作出的决定。随着美国国家战略重心从反恐转向亚太地区,巴基斯坦的战略地位下降。作为理性行为体,巴基斯坦在分析新的收益—成本结构后选择继续留在以美国为首的反恐联盟,同时谋求独立于美国利益的外交政策,并为美国撤军后的中南亚安全格局做准备。未来美巴反恐联盟将得以维持,但合作水平将有所下降,甚至有继续恶化的危险。

In the U.S. - Pakistan anti - terror alliance, the United States is in a position of leadership, while Pakistan is in a position of receiving orders. The U.S. Pakistan anti - terror alliance mainly serves the national interests of the United States. Pakistan made the decision to join the alliance with the United States only after conducting a careful cost -benefit analysis. As the core strategic concern of the U. S. has gradually shifted from counter - terrorism to the Asia Pa- cific Region, the strategic position of Pakistan has declined. In its analysis of the new structure of costs and benefits, Pakistan has opted, as a rational actor, to continue as a member of the U.S. lead anti - terror alliance. At the same time, in preparation for the Central Asian security scenario that will ensue following the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region, it has also sought a diplomatic policy independent of American interests. In the future, the U.S. - Pakistan alliance will be maintained, however the level of cooperation will decline, and there is risk that relations will deteriorate.