基于生产和销售预测的图书出版产业投资优化研究

The Optimization of Publishing Industry Investment Based on the Forecasts of Production and Sales

采用灰色数学模型,对纸质图书出版、数字图书出版的生产额和销售额及投资额进行预测,并分析其消费变化趋势对投资的影响机理。分析发现,图书出版产业发展需要更多的投资来满足消费需求,在纸质图书出版上,需要优化投资结构和适当剥离产能,在数字图书出版上,需要加大在技术发展和产能建设上的投资力度。

We use gray model to forecast the production and sales of paper books and digital books. We also analyze the mechanism of consumer trends impact on investment. We find that the publishing industry need more investment is to meet consumer demand. We also find that, it needed to optimize the investment structure and stripping production capacity in paper book, and it needed to increase investment in technology and productivity in digital book.