模拟高空气象数据在AERMOD预测中的适用性分析研究

Applicability of Simulated Upper Air Data in AERMOD

针对同一污染源，采用2006年～2009年上海浦东高空探空气象数据和高空模拟气象数据，利用AER—MOD进行了大气预测中排气高度、温度、速度等因子敏感性分析。点源预测结果表明：在中、短时间尺度下，除非排气筒高度特别高（〉60m），一般情况下模拟高空气象数据预测结果与实际探空气象数据预测结果的偏差在一6％～6％之间，高空模拟数据适用；但长时间尺度下，只有当排气筒高度低于20m和（或）排气温度低于30℃时，模拟高空气象数据才适用。对面源的预测结果表明，模拟高空气象数据通常适合于各种情形。

The sensibility analysis of height, temperature and velocity for AERMOD by using the sounding and simulated up- per air data from 2006 to 2009 of Pudong Shanghai shows the deviation would normally be - 6% to 6% and simulated upper air data will be suitable for point source in short or mid - term timescale, except that the release height is above 60 m. In the long - term, the estimated upper air data is only suitable in case the release height is below 20 m and（or） temperature is lower than 30~C. The results for area source illustrate that the simulated upper air data apply in mostly normal situations.