中俄贸易合作水平的影响因素分析——基于贸易引力模型

Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors on Sino-Russia Trade Cooperation: Based on the Gravity Model of Trade

文章基于贸易引力模型,以中国的前十二大贸易伙伴为研究对象,对影响中国与贸易伙伴国贸易合作的影响因素进行研究,并进一步分析了制约中俄贸易发展的影响因素。文章分析认为,与一贯的观念不同,就参考各贸易伙伴国的GDP总量水平而言,中俄的贸易合作在总量上已经处于一个相对较高的水平,俄罗斯对中国经济的依存度远远高于其他贸易伙伴。贸易伙伴国的GDP、对中国的FDI、贸易依存度以及与中国是否同时属于WTO,会促进中国的对外贸易;而两国之间的贸易距离和人均GDP差额对双边贸易合作具有反向作用。在此基础上,文章进一步分析认为,俄罗斯的经济总量规模较小、中俄双方直接投资不足,中俄双方互补的贸易结构以及俄罗斯一直未能纳入WTO是制约中俄经贸合作深化的重要因素。

This paper studies the influencing factors of trade cooperation between China and its top twelve trade partners, and further analyzes the constraints on Sino - Russian trade cooperation. The results suggest that, contrary to traditional notions, Sino - Russia trade cooperation has reached a relative high level in terms of each trade partner＇s GDP. Russia＇s degree of dependence on trade with China is far higher than China＇s other trade partners. The two trade partners＇ GDP, Russia＇s FDI in China, the degree of trade dependence and membership of the WTO, together with the trade distance and difference in GDP per capital between the two countries, all have negative effects. Finally, this paper indicates that Russia＇s relatively small GDP, inadequate direct invest- ment between the two countries, their complementary trade structure and Russia＇s hesitation in joining the WTO were constraints to Sino -Russian trade cooperation deepening.