中国税收收入经济性影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Main Factors Affecting China's Revenue

文章选取了国内生产总值、财政支出以及商品零售价格指数作为影响中国税收收入的主要因素,运用计量经济模型进行了实证分析.建立了多元回归模型,进行了参数估计、统计检验与稳定性检验,并且进行了模型的异方差性与自相关性的检验和修正.模型的提出不仅验证了定性分析的结论,而且为中国税收收入的分析与预测提供了一定的研究工具,为政策制定提供参考.

This article selects GDP, financial expenditure and retail price index as the main factors impacting the revenue, and uses econometric model to make an empirical analysis, It sets up a multivariate regression model, makes parameter estimation, statistics tests and stability tests and does the tests and amendment of the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelatiotr This model not only proves the conclusion of the qualitative analysis, but also provides a research instrument for the analysis and forecast of the revenue.