基于主体的住房市场流动搜寻行为建模与仿真

Agent-based Modeling and Simulation of Mobile Search Behavior in Housing Market

搜寻是住房市场的重要经济现象。为了探明住房市场流动搜寻行为的影响因素,结合住房过滤理论和主体建模技术,对买方在新房和二手房市场之间的流动搜寻过程进行仿真,并通过敏感性分析,明确了新房供应量和市场信息水平对流动搜寻行为的影响。结果表明:家庭生命周期和市场环境的改变会影响买方对住房市场的选择,并导致流动搜寻行为的产生;新房供应量能推动住房过滤过程,促使买方搜寻活动向新房市场流动;市场信息水平的提高能促进二手房市场的销售,但对新房市场的销售量和销售持时产生抑制作用。建议结合具体城市微观数据、增加区位属性变量和引入房产中介主体,拓展在住房市场中的应用。

Search is an important economic phenomenon in the housing market.To explore the factors influencing the mobile search behavior in the housing market,this paper integrated the housing filtering theory with the agentbased modeling technique,and simulated the mobile search process between new and resale housing market for buyers.By using sensitivity analysis,the impacts of new housing supply and information level on mobile search behavior were addressed.The findings indicate that,the change in household life cycle and market environment can affect the buyer choice of housing sub-markets,which leads to the mobile search behavior; new housing supply accelerates the housing filtering process,and directs the buyer search flow to the new housing market; higher information level can increase the sales on the resale housing market,but the sales and time on market are constrained on the new housing market.Further applications in housing market were proposed by incorporating the micro data of a certain city,adding location-specific variables and introducing the real estate broker.