创新对产业结构高级化影响的实证研究——基于2000—2011年的省际面板数据

Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Innovation on Advancement of Industrial Structure Process——Based on Panel Datas of Provinces from 2000 to 2011

本文利用2000—2011年中国31个省份的省际面板数据,将创新对产业结构高级化进程的影响进行了实证检验,并选取10个省份的创新活动效率进行了比较分析。研究的结果表明:①中国整体的产业高级化产出对后一期的影响在5%水平上显著,说明中国的产业结构高级化进程具有动态积极的正向连续性特征;②创新投入对产业结构高级化进程具有显著积极作用,但是从动态视角,本研究不能证明创新对产业结构高级化进程具有动态影响机制。③创新效率并不存在显著的地区差异,即经济发达地区的创新效率高于经济欠发达地区,在本文中没有找到证据。但是,创新效率的分解指标存在个体特征差异。本文认为创新对于产业结构高级化进程的影响机理主要体现在三个方面:一是产业结构高级化过程通过产业结构自身的扬弃过程,从而实现前期产业结构对后期产业结构的动态影响;二是创新通过投入研发经费和研发人员来影响产业结构的高级化产出,但创新投入的影响没有动态连续特征,要素投入只在部分地区有静态显著影响,并且具有地区差异;三是创新效率通过产业生产是否达到生产可能性边界来影响产业结构高级化进程,这是通过技术效率和规模效率的实现来达到生产的潜力边界。

This paper uses 31 provinces autonomous regions and municipalities and autonomous regions＇ provincial panel data from 2000 to 2011 to have an empirical test the effect of innovation on 31 provinces＇ advancement of industrial structure, compares and analyzes ten provinces＇ innovation activities efficiency. Results of the study show that： First, Chinese overall advancement of industrial structure output has significant effect at the 5% level on after a period, which explains that the process of Chinese advancement of industrial structure continues with dynamic positive forward. Second, innovation input divides into funding input and staff input, the analysis of static panel data on the process of China＇s advancement of industrial structure of this study has a significant positive effect, and the influence is greater than the fixed-asset investment and foreign direct investment. However, from a dynamic perspective, this study can not demonstrate that innovative processes have dynamic impact mechanism on advancement of industrial structure dynamic. Third, there is no significant regional differences of innovation efficiency, namely we did not find evidence to support innovation efficiency of economically developed regions is more higher than economically developing regions in this paper, however, the decomposition indicators of innovation efficiency exist characteristics of differences in individual. This paper argues that the process of innovation for the industrial structure influence mechanism is mainly reflected in three aspects： First, the industrial structure itself through the dissemination of tacit knowledge to influence industry structure after a high-class level; Second, innovation through R＆D expenditures and R＆D employee to influence the structure of high-class industrial output, but the impact of investment in innovation has not dynamic continuous characteristics, factor inputs in some areas there is still only a significant effect, and has regional differences; Third, innovation and efficiency through industrial production has reached production possibility frontier to influence the industrial structure process, which is through technical efficiency and scale efficiency of implementation to achieve the production of potential boundaries.