最终需求模式演变、产业结构变迁与CO_2排放——基于投入产出模型和SDA方法的分析

Evolution of Final Demand Pattern,Changes in Industrial Structure and CO_2 Emission in China——Based on Input-output Model and SDA Method

基于非竞争型投入产出模型测算了2002～2010年最终消费、资本形成和出口对CO2排放的拉动规模,使用SDA方法对CO2排放增量进行影响因素分解,并对最终需求模式在CO2排放中的作用机制进行深入分析。研究结果显示,三类最终需求在拉动CO2排放中的作用存在很大差异,从污染的绝对量来看由大到小依次是投资、消费和出口,从污染的增量来看依次是投资、出口和消费。这一现象与产业结构变动密切相关,消费增长引起的产业结构变动有利于降低碳排放,而投资增长的效应则相反。要同时实现经济结构转型和低碳发展两大目标,必须进行最终需求模式调整,建立以居民消费为主导的经济发展模式。

In this paper, CO2 emissions from final consumption, investment and export during 2002-2010 are calculated and the functions of final demand pattern and industrial structure in CO2 emissions are analyzed based on the input-output model; then the impacts on the CO2 emissions are examined by the structural decomposition method. Results show that the roles of the three kinds of final demand in pulling CO2 emissions are quite different; in order of most polluting in absolute quantity it goes： investment, consump- tion and export; and investment, export and consumption in pollution increment; this phenomenon is closely related with the industrial structure. This paper proposes that expanding consumer demand helps to realize the two major goals of industrial structure optimization and emission reduction.