中国工业化阶段变迁、技术进步与能源效率提升——基于时变参数状态空间模型的实证分析

The Transition of Industrialization Stage, Technological Progress and Energy Efficiency Upgrading Based on the Time-Varying State Space Model

本文采用时变参数的状态空间模型,基于库兹涅茨假说和结构红利理论,研究了经济增长、产业结构变动、技术进步在不同工业化阶段对能源效率的差异化影响。结论认为,随着工业化阶段的变迁,人均GDP增长与能源经济效率呈现先下降后稳定再上升的＂U＂型关系;产业结构演进过程中,第二产业增加值占GDP的比重对能源效率的影响系数基本都为负。在工业化初期,第二产业对能源的消费需求稳定,产业结构变动对能源效率的影响不明显,进入工业化中后期,第三产业的快速发展能够优化能源的要素配置,产生结构红利提升能源效率;技术进步对能源效率的影响全部为正且影响程度较高,以1993年为分界点,可以将技术进步对能源效率的影响分为高波动和低波动两个阶段。在上述分析基础上,本文还通过计算产出缺口对能源效率提升的潜力进行了估算,结果显示,1978年以来能源效率的提升潜力基本在-4%~4%范围内波动,经济增长和产业结构对能源效率提升潜力的影响不断减弱并趋于稳定,技术进步对能源效率潜力的贡献逐渐增强。

Improving energy efficiency is the main method of relieving energy demands and solving the problem of energy undersupply.From the aspect of industrialization stage transition and technological progress,we selected the economic aggregate factor,industrial structure factor and total factor productivity growth rate as influencing variables of energy efficiency.Using the time-varying state space model,we analyzed the influence of economic growth,industrial structure change and technological progress on energy efficiency at different industrialization stages based on the hypothesis of kuznets and the theory of structure dividend.The results show that the relationship between per capita GDP and energy efficiency follows a U curve which first declines then increases after a relatively stable period with industrialization transition.The estimation coefficients of the ratio of the added value of secondary industry to GDP are almost as negative as industrial structure changes,following the general rules of the relationship between industrial structure evolution and energy efficiency during the process of transition.At the beginning of industrialization,the demand for energy by secondary industries is steady and the influence of industrial structure on energy efficiency is non-significant.During the middle and later industrialization periods,the rapid development of tertiary industries optimizes the allocation of energy resources,results in structure dividend and elevates energy efficiency.In the rapid technical progress period,rebound effects caused by technological progress on energy efficiency may weaken the promotion effect to some extent,reducing the influence of technological progress.Based on the analysis above,this article also estimated the potential energy efficiency by calculating the output gap.Potential energy efficiency fluctuated between-4% and 4% intervals after 1978.In the long run,promoting technological progress is a significant way to develop potential energy efficiency and improve energy efficiency.The government should subsidize energy-saving related research and development,and fund high-quality energy processing technology.They should also combine the long-term plan with the short target to promote the scientific development of the energy industry.