干旱灾害风险评估技术及其科学问题与展望

Drought Risk Assessment Technological Progresses and Problems

在全球变暖的背景下,干旱发生的频率和强度呈增加趋势,由于干旱灾害所引发的水资源匮乏、粮食危机、生态恶化(如荒漠化)等,直接威胁到国家的粮食安全和社会经济发展,干旱灾害风险评估及应急管理的技术水平亟待提高。本文介绍了干旱灾害风险评估研究领域的主要科技进展。在系统总结以往研究成果基础上,进行了干旱灾害风险分析,阐述了对干旱风险评估的科学认识,归纳了灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境的脆弱性、承灾体暴露度和防灾减灾能力的主要特征及其主要评估方法。从科学发展趋势和社会经济发展需求角度,思考了干旱灾害风险评估技术发展面临的主要科学问题及未来科学发展途径。

Water scarcity,food crises and ecological deterioration caused by drought disasters are a direct threat to food security and socio-economic development.Improvement of drought disaster risk assessment and emergency management is now urgently required.This article describes major scientific and technological progress in the field of drought disaster risk assessment.In China,the traditional way to manage natural disasters is through emergency management where disaster mitigation and prevention only commence after the emergence of disasters.This kind of management is no longer appropriate,especially for drought disasters.As the appearance of drought becomes more frequent and national requirements for prevention and mitigation grow,the system must transform from emergency management to risk management.In order to improve risk management,research into the characteristics of risk and risk assessments must be done.A scientific and practicable risk assessment method must be developed,so that assessment of damage caused by drought on life,society and people can be done correctly and accurately before and after the drought.By analysing the mechanisms of drought and risk management,the establishment of proper arid disaster risk management assessment mechanisms is explored and discussed.