能源和环境约束下的经济增长模型与实证分析

Economic Growth Model and Empirical Analysis under the Constraint of Energy and Environment

从经济增长与能源环境的关系入手,构建了考虑不可再生能源和环境污染的内生经济增长模型,揭示了在能源和环境约束下的经济可持续发展的最优路径.结果表明:只靠能源的大量投入,随着能源瓶颈约束的到来,经济发展将不可持续;当有污染存在时最优均衡经济增长率要放缓;同时运用计量经济学中多变量的协整检验,建立经济增长、能源消费和二氧化碳排放的协整方程,定量分析了三者之间的关系.二氧化碳与经济增长之间存在负相关关系,能源消费与经济增长存在正相关关系.

taking take the relationship between economic growth and energy＆ environment as the breakthrough point, the endogenous economic growth model with non-renewable energy and environment pollution Dre studied. It has revealed the optimal path to maintiansustainable economic development under the restriction of energy and environments.The results show that： with the arrival of the bottleneck of resources constraint, economic development will not be sustainable if China＇s economy mainly driven by substantial input of resources; when there is pollution exists,the optimal equilibrium economic growth rate will slow down. At the same time employed econometrics method of multivariable co-integrationtest, the paper establish cointegration equation with economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission, then we quantitative analysis the relationship between the three variables. There is negative correlation between Carbon dioxide and economic growth and positive correlation between energy consumption and economic growth.