中国城市土地扩张与人口增长协调性研究

Coordination between urban land expansion and population growth in China

基于城市建成区面积和城区人口数据,构建城市土地扩张与人口增长关系模型,对2000年和2010年中国657个城市的土地扩张与人口增长之间的协调性进行了评价。结果表明:①中国城市用地扩张和人口增长之间的协调性较弱,土地显著扩张是中国城市发展的主要类型,数量占城市总量的1/3;其次是人口显著增长类型,占城市数量的1/4,两极分化明显。②在空间分布上,土地显著扩张的城市主要集中在东部沿海、沿江、沿线等经济相对发达地区;人口显著增长的城市分布重心则相对西移,主要处于胡焕庸线以东的中西部地区。③从不同规模城市用地扩张与人口增长的协调性来看,特大城市、大城市发展以土地快速扩张为主,且土地显著扩张所占比例最大;中、小城市发展以人口快速增长为主,并以人口显著增长占优。④由城市规模变动来看,小城市规模晋升多以人口快速增长实现,大、中城市规模晋升则更多通过土地快速扩张推进,特别是以房地产、新城建设等带动的用地驱动型城市化来完成。

Based on the urban built-up land and population data of 2000 and 2010, this paper establishes the coordination model to evaluate the relationships between urban land expansion and population growth of 657 cities in China in recent decade. The results showed that： （1） the development between urban land expansion and population growth is not synchronous, with a weak degree of coordination. Urban land expansion was the leading mode for the development of Chinese cities, with 1/3 of all the cities. Population growth ranks second with 1/4 of all the cities. The gap was very large. （2） With regard to spatial distribution, cities with significant land expansion are mainly concentrated in developed eastern China, such as coastal area and cities along the rivers and transportation lines. On the contrary, the distribution center of the cities with significant population growth moved westwards, which are mainly located in the central and western China to the Hu Huanyong Line. （3） From the aspect of the coordination for urban land expansion at different scales and population growth, mega- and big cities were characterized by rapid built-up land expansion with the higher ratio of land expansion, while small and medium-sized cities were featured by rapid population growth with the higher ratio of population growth. （4） With respect to changes scale of city size, the number of small cities increased due to a rapid population growth, whereas the number of big and medium-sized cities increased owing to the rapid land expansion, especially via the promotion of the real estate and constructions of the new cities.