中国人口抚养比与居民消费——基于生命周期理论

The Impacts of Population Dependency Ratio on Household Consumption in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Life-cycle Hypothesis

近年来中国居民消费率呈逐年下降的趋势，其原因何在？本文以生命周期理论为基础构建了一个包含人口抚养比的居民消费模型，考察人口抚养比对居民消费率的影响。2001～2011年中国省际面板数据的实证研究结果表明：少儿抚养比对居民消费率有显著性的正向影响，老年抚养比对居民消费率有显著性的负向影响，即少儿抚养比越低、老年抚养比越高，居民消费率越低。因此，促进我国内需持续增长必须改善人口结构和老年群体消费的供求结构。

Why household consumption rate in China showed a declining trend in recent years？ Based on Life-cycle Hypothesis, this paper answered the question with a household consumption model which included the population dependency ratio variables. The results of empirical analysis on Chinese provinces panel data from 2001 to 2011 showed that： the child dependency ratio had a significant positive impact on household consumption rate, while the elderly dependency ratio had a significant negative impact on household consumption ratio; in another words, the lower the child dependency ratio was and the higher the elderly dependency ratio was, the lower the household consumption rate would be. Therefore, improving China＇s population structure and meeting the elderly consumption demand is an important way to promote the effective growth of domestic demand in China.