城镇化、老龄化、教育与人力资本——基于Divisia指数分解的方法

Urbanization,Aging,Education and Human Capital: Based on Divisia Analysis

本文使用Divisia指数构建和分解影响人力资本的相关因素，重点考察了教育、城镇化、老龄化对我国人力资本的影响，从量上界定了各自影响的大小。我们发现，1986～2008年，由于中国教育和城镇化的迅速扩张，基于地区和教育程度的Divisia指数的年平均增长率要大大高于基于性别和年龄的Divisia指数的年平均增长率。教育和城镇化对人力资本的贡献要大大高于性别和年龄的贡献，尤其是1994年后，教育以及城镇化的贡献增加。不同教育群组对人力资本增长的贡献也有很明显的区别，受过小学教育和初中教育的人群的贡献逐渐降低，而受过高等教育的人口对人力资本的贡献显著上升。

We investigate the effects of education, urbanization and aging on human capital using the approach of construction and decomposition of Divisia indices. We find that the Divisia indices based on education and location grow faster than those based on gender and age with the rapid expand of education and urbanization from 1986 to 2008. Through the decomposition, the contribution of education and urbanization is bigger than that of gender and age, especially after the year of 1994. The various groups contribute to human capital differently. The contribution of cohorts with primary and junior middle schooling decreases, while the higher education has a rising contribution to the human capital growth.