当前世界经济周期波动的新特征及中国的对策

New features of cyclical fluctuation of the world economy at present and China's counter-measures

随着世界经济发展中不确定性的增强,研究世界经济周期波动的新特征对于我国经济的发展具有重要的现实意义。文章选取了中美等6个国家作为样本。运用VAR模型以及最小二乘法对样本国家进行了实证分析,结果显示各国之间的经济联动性加强,非周期性波动因素的作用加大,政府的宏观政策在经济周期中的作用提高。在此基础上,文章提出了中国应对世界经济周期波动新特征的对策,即增强经济发展的内在动力,建立健全非周期性波动因素的安全预警机制并合理有效地使用政府的政策调控工具。

With the increasing uncertainty in the development of world economy, the study on the new features of cyclical fluctuation of the world economy at present is of great practical importance for China＇ s economic development. This article takes six countries （e. g. China and the United States） as the samples. Using VAR model and the least square method to conduct empirical analysis on the samples, we find that the economic interaction among them strengthens, the role of the factors of non - cyclical fluctuation improves and that the role of the government＇ s macro policy in economic cycles increases. Upon the analysis above, this paper proposes counter - measure for China to respond to the new features of cyclical fluctuation of the world economy, i.e., to strengthen the inner motivation of economic development, establish sound pre- caution mechanism of non- cyclical fluctuation factors and to use government＇s policy regulation tools rationally and effectively.