渤海湾海岸带土地利用变化的社会经济关联因子分析

The socio-economic associated factors of land-use changes in the coastal zone of Bohai bay

渤海湾海岸带土地利用在过去20年间经历了巨大变化。与区域社会经济发展关系密切。针对渤海湾海岸带1989—2008年土地利用变化，使用主成份一多元回归分析法、灰色关联度分别对其时间变化和空间分异与社会经济因子的联系进行分析。结果证明城市化、工业化与居民点及工矿用地、交通用地、咸水水体存在相互促进作用；而农业发展滞后和经济结构不合理等因素与耕地和未利用地的减少密切相关；主成份分析法和多元回归相结合能更好地解释土地利用变化与社会经济的宏观联系。灰色关联法能揭示它们之间的具体关联。

The land use along the coastal zone of Bohai bay experienced huge changes in the recent 20 years, which are closely related to regional social and economic development. Using principal component-multiple regression method and grey correlation analysis, the quantitative analysis socio-economic associated factors of temporal and spatial land-use changes in the coastal zone of Bohai bay from 1989 to 2008 is carried out respectively. Results showed that 1） urbanization and industrialization have mutual promotion effects with residential and industrial land, transportation land and salt-water body; 2） the development lagging of agriculture and problem of economic structure have close relationship with the decrease of farmland and unused land; 3） the combination of principal component and multiple regression can explain the macroscale relationship between land-use change and socio-economic background, while grey relational analysis can reveal the particular llnk between them.