中国省际贸易流量再估算与区间分解

The Re-estimation and Decomposition of China Provincial Trade Flow

省际分工与贸易关系的形成与演进,是省际经济增长与发展的重要源泉。特别是对我国这样一个发展中大国而言,国内各省份之间的贸易在发挥市场规模优势、促进经济持续、自主、平稳、健康发展等方面具有不可替代的作用。然而,在国内各省份之间的经济交流中,由于没有类似海关的机构存在,资料收集难度大,导致绝大多数国家都没有对国内省际贸易的全面统计数据。为了更系统的研究省际贸易情况,本文通过对中国省际宏观数据进行挖掘处理,运用引力模型对1993—2010年中国各省份之间产品和服务的贸易流量进行了估算,并据此对省际贸易差额和空间流向问题进行了分析。结果发现,各经济区域内贸易联系较强,经济区域外贸易对象明确,且随着时间推移,经济区域内贸易份额有所下降,区域外贸易份额有所上升,这在一个侧面反映了国内市场一体化程度有所提高。

The formation and evolution of regional division of labor and trade relationship is an important source of the pro- vincial economic growth. Especially for a big developing country like China, provincial trade plays an irreplaceable role in a- chieving scale advantage and promoting economic development. It is difficult to collect data due to the lack of agencies such as the Customs in economic exchanges between provinces, so almost all of the countries in the world couldn＇t attain comprehensive data of provincial trade. In order to study the provincial trade in a systematic way, the paper uses the gravity equation to esti- mate the provincial trade flow for China from 1993 to 2010 which based on China＇s provincial macro data. Furthermore, the pa- per also analyses the balance of trade and spatial flows. The result presents that, each province has a strong relationship inside its economy and a obvious orientation outside it. Gradually,the share of trade inside its economy declines,outside it rises,this is a reflection that the domestic market integration has increased.