区域农田生态系统正、负服务价值时空变化及影响因素分析——以山东省为例

Spatial and Temporal Change of Positive and Negative Services Value and its Impact Factors in Regional Farmland Ecosystem: a Case Study in Shandong Province

在统计数据的基础上,以山东省为例采用生态经济学方法估算农田生态系统的正、负服务价值及其时空变化,并运用灰色关联分析其影响因素。结果表明:2001-2011年农田生态系统正、负价值均呈增加的趋势,正生态服务价值年均增加55.2×108元,环境污染产生负价值最大,变化范围在174.94×108～299.35×108元之间;化肥、农药产生负价值呈减少趋势,地膜产生负价值比例逐年增加。2011年农田生态系统服务价值存在空间差异,正服务价值最高的是临沂市,负价值中菏泽市温室气体排放以及济宁、德州等水资源消耗最大;水资源利用、作物种植面积、有效灌溉面积等因素对农业生产影响较大,农药、化肥的施用对农田服务产生正价值,又影响到农田服务的负价值。

Based on the statistics of Shandong Province, ecological economics approach was used to calculate the positive and negative services value of farmland ecosystem and its spatial and temporal change, and then gray correlation theory was used to analyze its influencing factors. The results suggested that the positive and negative services value of the farmland ecosystem increased, and the average positive value increased 55.2 ×10^8 yuan, the negative value resulted from environmental pollution was the highest which ranges between 174.94×10^8-299.35×10^8yuan. The negative value of the fertilizers and pesticides had decreased and the proportion of the negative value of the plastic film was increasing year by year. The services values of farmland ecosystem in 2011 was different among regions, of which Linyi＇ s positive value was the highest, Heze＇s negative value resulted from greenhouse gas emissions was the highest, for water consumption, Jining and Dezhou rated as the first and two. The water using and the planting areas of the crops and the effective irrigation area had a relatively higher influence on the agricultural production. The use of pesticides and chemical fertilizer on the farmland had a positive value, but a negative impact on the farmland services.