基于SPA的中国沿海旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价

Analysis on Economic System Vulnerability of Coastal Tourism City Based on Set Pair Analysis

运用集对分析法从经济敏感性和应对能力两方面对中国29个典型沿海旅游城市经济系统脆弱性进行测度。结果表明:1)沿海旅游城市经济系统脆弱性呈现出一定的区域差异:绍兴、南通、唐山、宁波为低脆弱性区域,而广州、秦皇岛、三亚、深圳、海口为高脆弱性区域;2)经济敏感性和应对能力共同决定沿海旅游城市经济系统脆弱性程度;3)根据障碍因素分析,总游客量增长率、旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重、旅游业增长弹性系数、旅游从业人员占总从业人员比重等敏感性因子及实际利用外资占全市GDP比重、教育支出占地方财政支出比重、人均GDP、产业结构多样化指数等应对能力因子是制约系统脆弱性降低的关键障碍因素。

Based on a detailed discussion about the conception of ESV, the paper establishes an economic system vulnerability as- sessment model of coastal tourism cities from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity by using the SPA. Then it uses en- tropy method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights for the assessment of ESV. According to the model, the e- conomic system vulnerability of 29 typical coastal tourism cities is evaluated and divided into four grades by standard deviation method. The results indicate that firstly the ESV of coastal tourism cities present obvious regional differences： Shaoxing, Nan- tong, Tangshan and Ningbo belong to low vulnerability area;the highest vulnerability areas include Guangzhou, Qinhuangdao, Sanya, Shenzhen and Haikou. Secondly, the influence of sensitivity and response capacity codetermine the ESV of coastal tourism cities. Thirdly, the main obstacle factor of ESV of coastal tourism cities is also different from each other. Growth rate of the total number of tourists, proportion of foreign exchange earnings to the total tourism income, coefficient of tourism growth elasticity and proportion of tourism personnel are the first obstacle factors influencing the declining ESV from sensitivity; the low share of actual using the foreign capital,insufficient education input,lower per capita GDP and unreasonable industrial structure are the most important obstacle factors to enhance the response capacity.