破解中国经济困局:基于总供给—总需求的分析框架

Resolving the Conundrums of the Chinese Economy-Using an AD-AS Framework

由于受到国际金融危机、国内刘易斯拐点等的冲击,中国经济正遭遇前所未有的挑战,总需求调整受到越来越多制约。外需无法回至危机前;消费需求短期也难以大幅提升;投资需求爱前期房价高企及金融危机后融资条件等约束,刺激空间也明显缩小。因此,单靠传统的逆周期宏观调控政策难以彻底破解中国经济的困局。本文在总供给—总需求(AD-AS)的系统性分析框架下,借鉴供给学派的部分主张,对中国当前的经济困境进行剖析,并提出具体政策建议以避免走过度依赖投货币、上项目的老路,实现更加合意的经济均衡:一方面应继续坚持逆周期的总需求调控,但要格外注重追求投资效率、把握刺激力度,充分考虑物价对总需求扩张的敏感程度;另一方面,应试图寻求破解困局的突破点,全方位推进总供给调整进程。

China s macro economy is facing unprecedented challenges thanks to such shocks as the global financial crisis and its aging labor force measured by the Lewis Turning Point theory.Its aggregate demand adjustment has faced more and more constraints.External demand remains weak and cannot recover to the pre-crisis level.Consumption will not improve significantly in the short term and the room for stimulus through increasing investment is also limited given the already high house prices and the financing difficulties in the wake of the global financial crisis.Therefore,the traditional counter-cyclical macroeconomic regulation policies are inadequate in resolving the current conundrums of the Chinese economy.Based on the AD-AS analytical framework and drawing on ideas of the supply side of economics,this article analyzes the predicament of the Chinese economy and proposes some policy recommendations for avoiding repeating the old development mode that is heavily reliant on money printing-supported investment to rebalance the economy.On the one hand,China should stick to the counter-cyclical aggregate demand adjustment and pay more attention to the efficiency of investment and strength of stimulus so that inflation will not surge as a result of the aggregate demand expansion.On the other hand,we should push the adjustment of aggregate supply to help bail the Chinese economy out of the predicament.