计及风电预测可信度的经济调度及辅助决策方法

An Economic Dispatch and Decision Making Method Based on Credibility of Wind Power Forecasting

含风电系统经济调度的研究为大规模风电并网运行提供了相关对策。文中针对风电出力预测水平的局限性,建立了风功率预测可信度模型,并利用分区建模的手段建立了风功率预测误差模型。基于此,分析了考虑预测可信度的储能成本模型,结合火电机组出力成本模型完成了含风电系统的经济调度模型。模型考虑了系统失负荷、弃风概率约束及输电线路安全约束;为减小储能成本,将储能容量表示为平抑风功率预测误差的概率模型;同时在目标函数中引入储能成本调节系数,用于风功率调度水平的辅助决策。以10机系统为例,采用Monte Carlo模拟技术及模糊聚类辅助决策手段验证了所述方法的可行性。

The study on the economic dispatch provides an efficient solution for the large-scale wind power grid-connected system operation. Due to the limited accuracy of wind power forecasting, a wind power prediction credibility model is built. And a wind power forecasting error model is proposed by use of partition modelling method. Based on those models, the energy storage cost considering forecasting credibility is discussed. Combining with thermal units cost, an economic dispatch model of power system with wind farms is completed. The model considers the probability of loss of load and curtailed wind power. In order to reduce the energy storage cost, the energy storage capacity is showed as the probability of wind power forecasting error. Simultaneously, the energy storage cost adjustment factor is added into the objective function, which is used in the decision making of wind power dispatch. Taking a 10-machine system as an example, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified through Monte Carlo simulation technology and fuzzy clustering method.