瓶颈效应还是马太效应?——数字鸿沟指数演化的跨国比较分析

Matthew Effect or Ceiling Effect? A Cross-Society and Within-Society Comparison on the Evolution of the Digital Divide

基于香港互联网使用调查、美国常驻人口调查、皮尤"互联网与美国生活"项目调研和国际电信联盟对各国互联网扩散率调查等相关数据,本研究经验性地描述了香港、美国以及全球范围内1996年至2008年互联网"数字鸿沟"指数的发展趋势。研究表明,香港地区、美国与世界平均水平的互联网数字鸿沟发展趋势与该地区互联网扩散率呈倒U字型关系,即随着互联网扩散率的增长,"数字鸿沟"指数在该地区互联网扩散率的中值处达到峰值,并随后下降。

The study empirically describes the evolution of digital divide index on internet in Hong Kong, the United States and worldwide from 1996 to 2008, based on the internet usage survey in Hong Kong, the permanent population survey in the United States, the Pew＇s survey data of ＂ In ternet and American Life＂ project, and the ITU^s survey data of national internet diffusivity, it shows an inverse-U shaped relationship between the dynamic of the digital divide and the internet diffusivity, which means that with the growth of internet diffusivity, the digital divide index will de- cline after peaking at its mid-value.