基于多元回归分析的中国旅游上市公司投资效率研究

On Investment Efficiency of China's Tourism Listed Companies Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

考察中国旅游上市公司的投资效率情况及其它因素如何影响公司的投资水平,为进而研究高管薪酬激励对旅游上市公司投资效率的影响做好铺垫。选用2002—2010年的15家旅游上市公司的样本数据,在文献分析的基础上,借鉴Richardson的投资期望模型对旅游上市公司的投资期望模型进行构建,并借助SPSS 17.0和EXCEL 2003工具进行数据处理和分析。研究发现,在2003—2010年间,15家旅游上市公司的投资期望模型的回归残差均值为-0.000 000 744,其中7家公司的回归残差均值小于0,8家公司的回归残差均值大于0;回归残差均值的最小值和最大值分别是-0.040 181 25(首旅股份)和0.036 942 5(华侨城A);t-1年总资产报酬率ROAi,t-1与t年投资水平INVi,t呈显著正相关(p<0.10),t-1年投资水平INVi,t-1与t年投资水平INVi,t呈显著正相关(p<0.01),公司上市年龄Agei,t-1与INVi,t呈显著负相关(p<0.05)。研究揭示在2003—2010年间15家旅游上市公司整体上表现为投资不足,其中7家表现为投资不足,8家表现为过度投资;旅游上市公司总资产报酬率和投资水平对公司次年的投资水平有着显著的促进作用,而上市年龄对公司次年投资水平有着明显的抑制作用。

The paper is to investigate the conditions of efficient investment for China＇s tourism listed companies and to examine how olher factors affect the level of investment for the companies, in order to establish a basis for further studying the effect of executive compensation incentives on the investment efficiency of the tourism listed companies. Fifteen tourism listed companies from 2002 to 2010 are selected as study samples. On the basis of analysis of literature, the paper builds tourism listed companies＇ capital invest- ment model by using the Richardson expected investment model for reference and then use it to deal with and analyze the data by the tools of SPSS 17.0 and EXCEL 2010. It is found that the mean residual of fifteen tourism listed companies＇ capital investment model is --0. 000 000 744 with the mean residuals of seven companies less than zero and the ones of eight companies greater than zero. The minimum and maximum of the mean residuals respectively are --0. 040 181 25 （Beijing Capital Tourism Co. ,Ltd） and 0. 036 942 5 （Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co. , Ltd）. ROAi,t-1 （return of assets, p〈0.10） andINVi,t-1 （scale of investment, p〈 0.01） respectively have significant positive correlations with INV~,t. And Agei,t-1 （p〈0. 05） has the significant negative correla- tion with INi,t,It suggests that fifteen tourism listed companies from 2003 to 2010 have under-investment on the whole, in which seven ones and eight ones respectively have under-investment and over-investment. In addition, the total return on assets and the level of investment in tourism listed companies significantly advance the level of investment of the company of the following year. And the listing age significantly inhibits the level of investment of the company of the following year.