外生不确定条件下水利BOT项目特许期决策研究

A Study of The Decision-making of the Concession Period for Water Conservancy BOT Project Under Exogenous Uncertainties

特许期作为水利BOT项目融资决策中的核心问题,其合理性在很大程度上决定了项目成功与否。通过分析影响水利BOT项目特许期决策的外生不确定因素,建立折现现金流量模型(DCF),利用蒙特卡洛进行模拟并确定特许期区间,最后通过算例进行分析,说明该决策方法可以将水利项目风险合理的分摊给项目公司与政府,对水利BOT项目特许期的决策更具公平合理性。

Concession period is a critical issue in water conservancy BOT project financing, the rationality of the concession period largely determines the success of the project. This paper establishes a Discounted Cash Flow model （DCF） by analyzing the exoge- nous uncertainties that affect the decision-making of water conservancy BOT project concession period, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the range of the concession period. Finally, this paper uses an example to draw a conclusion that the decision-mak- ing method can share the risk of the water conservancy project to the project company and the government reasonably. Besides, it is more fair and reasonable for the concession period decision-making of the water conservancy BOT project.