中国人口与经济分布一致性的空间效应研究

Spatial Effect of Population-Economic Distribution Consistency in China

以中国1990～2010年地市区域一级为样本，纳入空间效应探讨了中国人口与经济分布不一致的趋势、影响因素及地区差异。结果表明：20世纪90年代以来中国一直是经济聚集远超前于人口集中，但其中，中西部属于人口集中超前于经济聚集区域，东部属于经济聚集超前于人口集中区域。中国人口与经济分布的不一致性存在较强空间聚集和空间依赖，当控制了经济水平和结构变量，人口与经济分布不一致性不仅受物质和人力资本、基础设施建设、区域政策和区位条件的影响，而且还与邻近地区的人口与经济分布不一致状况存在较强相关性。相同影响因素在解释东中西部地区人口与经济分布不一致性时存在明显差异。进一步分析发现，若忽视空间效应分析入口与经济分布不一致影响因素，容易造成低估市场机制而高估政府作用的结果。

Using regional data from 1990 to 2010 in China, the paper examines trends, determi- nants, regional disparities and spatial effects of population and economic distribution consistency. Re- sults show that population densily is much smaller than economic densily at national level and in the east regions, while population densily is larger than economic densily in middle and west regions of the country. Spatial dependence and spatial concentration exist in the population -economic distribution in- consistency in China. Material capital, human capital, infrastructure construction and policies are the main influencing factors when economic level and structure are controlled. There are prominent differ- ences in the above factors in determining regional population - economic spatial distribution inconsisten- cy. Further, neglecting spatial effect of population - economic distribution inconsistency could result in underestimation of market mechanism and overestimation of the role of the government.