经济周期的实体经济诱因与虚拟经济诱因——基于理论发展线索的探究

Real and Fictitious Economic Inducements to Economic Cycle:A Study Based on Theoretical Development Clues

经济周期,也称商业周期,是贯穿于经济发展史或商业发展史的经济现象和经济问题,因此,关于经济周期的理论研究也贯穿于整个现代经济学理论发展的历史。经济周期在不同的历史阶段呈现出不同的特征和诱因,不同历史时期的经济周期理论也就呈现出不同的视角和分析重点。在古典经济学、新古典经济学、凯恩斯主流经济学、20世纪80年代以来经济学发展的不同时期,经济周期理论纷呈,而关于经济周期的实体经济诱因和虚拟经济诱因的探究无疑是理论发展的一条重要线索,把握这条线索有助于我们分析全球化背景下的经济周期问题。

Economic cycle, also called business cycle, is economic phenomenon and prob- lems throughout the history of economic or business development. Therefore, the theoretical study of economic cycle also accompanies the entire theoretical development history of mod- ern economics. Economic cycle embodies different characteristics and inducements at different historical stages, so economic cycle theories in different historical periods have their own perspectives and analytical focuses. From classical economics, neo-classical economics, Keynesian mainstream economics to economics since 1980s, there are various economic cycle theories, and the study of real and fictitious economic inducements to economic cycle is un- doubtedly an important clue to theoretical development. A grasp of this clue helps us to ana- lyze the issues of economic cycle under globalization background.