中国土地财政增长之谜——分税制改革、土地财政增长的策略性

The Mystery of Land Finance Growth in China:Tax-sharing Reform,Strategic Interaction of Land Finance

本文综合分税制改革、地方竞争等理论分析,建立一个时空动态面板计量模型,实证检验土地财政增长的策略性行为以及驱动因素,结果表明土地财政增长存在横向竞争模仿的策略互动和惯性依赖特征。房地产价格指数显著拉动土地财政增长,而人口密度、城市规模、城市开放度的影响显著为负。地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度随着经济发展水平的变化而变化,预算内财政缺口只能在一定时间段解释土地财政增长。

This paper works at the interaction of central-iocal fiscal relationship, local competition, fiscal policies, et al. , and use a time-space dynamic panel model to investigate the strategic interaction and driving factors of land finance growth. The empirical results indi- cate that the growth of land finance reflects competition-imitation of horizontal strategic inter- action and inertia dependence. Housing price have significant and positive impact on land fi- nance growth, but negative impact for population density, city openness and urban scale. De- pendence on land finance and budgetary fiscal gap can only help to explain land finance growth in certain period.