住宅市场风险、需求倾向与住宅价格波动——一个理论与实证分析

Housing Market Risks,Demand Propensity and Housing Prices:A Theory and Empirical Analysis

本文基于一个包含市场风险的住宅需求倾向与住宅价格决定模型,利用CHNS数据,检验了住宅价格风险和风险对冲倾向对需求倾向与住宅价格的影响。本文的主要发现是,住宅价格风险对需求倾向和住宅价格具有负向影响,风险对冲倾向对购房概率和住宅价格具有正向影响;在住宅需求倾向方面,风险对冲倾向对社会地位高的家庭的影响要高于社会地位较低的家庭,但后者的消费行为对住宅价格的影响则更显著。

Based on a demand propensity and housing price model containing housing market risks, this paper empirically analyses the effects of house market risks on demand pro- pensity and housing price, using CHNS data. The results show that housing price risk has negative effects on demand propensity and housing prices, while hedging propensity has posi- tive effects on demand propensity and housing prices. In the demand propensity, the family that has high social-economic status holds greater influence in hedging than a low status fami- ly, but the consumption behavior of the latter has significant impact on housing prices.