安倍经济学与日本主权债务:风险与前景

Abenomics and Sovereign Debt: Risks and Prospects

目前,日本国债已突破1000万亿日元大关,高达9%的财政赤字率和224.3%的国债负担率均已超过3%和60%的国际警戒线。安倍执政后提出的大胆的复兴经济计划能否成功,成为国际社会关注的焦点。本文在揭示日本国债被降级两次而没有发生债务危机的基础上,通过分析日本爆发主权债务危机的潜在风险,指出安倍提出的大胆的金融政策、灵活的财政政策、刺激民间投资的增长战略"三支箭"虽然在短期内提振了日本经济的信心,但如果不进行彻底的结构性改革,走出长达20年的滞涨,实现经济增长,其量与质并重的超宽松货币政策可能随时引爆日本债务危机。

Currently, Japan＇s national debt has topped 1 quadrillion yen. Fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio has reached 9% and debt-to-GDP ratio was 224.3 % ,both were beyond the international security line of 3 % and 60% accordingly. Abe proposed a plan to rejuvenate Japanese economy after he took office, then the international society focused on whether his plan would be successful or not. Based on revealing the reasons why Japan avoided debt crisis while its debt rating was demoted twice, by analyzing potential risks of Japanese sovereign debt crisis, this paper concludes that Abe＇s ＂three arrows＂ which are aggressive monetary policy,flexible fiscal policy and growth strategy that promotes private investment boosted the confidence of Japanese economy in short term. However,without thorough structural reform which could lead Japan out of 20-years＇ stagflation and into economic growth,Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing might trigger Japanese debt crisis.