中国省际贸易的演变趋势、特征与展望：1987-2007

Evolution Trend,Characteristics and Outlook of the Inter-provincial Trade in China: From 1987 to 2007

省际贸易对一国经济的重要性,并不能因为经济全球化而受到丝毫的忽视。本文首次采用中国5年30省份的投入产出表,总结了1987-2007年间中国省际贸易的演变趋势与特征:第一,中国省际贸易保持了高速增长,2007年省际贸易总额是国际贸易总额的2倍,东部地区始终是省际贸易的主体;且对于省际贸易来说,GDP的影响可能大于距离的影响。第二,省际贸易保持着很高的集中度,与GDP的高集中度存在高度的重合。第三,中国各省的省际贸易依存度存在上升的趋势,表明中国国内市场的一体化程度不断增强;2007年省际贸易依存度是国际贸易依存度的3倍,表明国内市场一体化的程度仍远高于国际市场一体化的程度;此外,东部的省际贸易依存度高于中西部地区。第四,各省对外贸易中,省际贸易的比重呈现出下降趋势,表明国内市场的一体化速度慢于国际市场;但从比重来说,中国大多数省份的对外贸易仍然以省际贸易为主。第五,长期保持省际贸易逆差的省份大多属于中西部地区。

This paper summarizes the evolution trend of inter-provincial trade in China from 1987 to 2007. We conclude the evolution trend and characteristics. First, the inter-provincial trade in China has maintained rapid growth, the total amount of inter-provincial trade in 2007 is two times that of the volume of international trade, and the eastern region has always been the main body of the inter- provincial trade; for inter-provincial trade, GDP is the more important influencing factor rather than the distance. Second, inter-provincial trade has maintained a high degree of concentration. Third, inter- provincial trade dependence of China＇s provinces is a rising trend, and this indicates that China＇s domestic market integration continues to enhance; the dependence of the inter-provincial trade is three times that of the dependence on international trade in 2007, and this shows that the degree of integration of the domestic market is still far higher than the level of international market integration. Fourth, the proportion of inter-provincial trade is showing a downward trend, showing that the speed of domestic market integration is slower than the speed of international market integration. Fifth, the provinces of long-term inter-provincial trade deficit are mostly of the central and western regions.