离岛免税政策对海南省旅游需求影响效应实证研究

Assessing the Impacts of the Goods Tax Rebate Policy on Tourism Demand for Hainan Island,China

离岛免税政策是海南省建设国际旅游岛战略的重要组成部分,也是中国旅游公共政策的重大创新。文章系统地研究了离岛免税政策对海南省旅游需求的拉动效应,并通过AMRA模型进行建模和分析。数据分析结果表明,离岛免税政策对海南省国内旅游收入具有显著的拉动作用。文章还探讨了研究结果的理论和实践意义,特别是海南离岛免税政策对调控当前中国出境旅游过高购物消费所具有的独到启示。

Recently, the Chinese government, industry, and consumers have all suggested that a tourism taxation policy, together with tax cuts and exemptions, should be introduced to stimulate the economy. At the macro level, the extra revenues that can be generated for tourist destinations are the most important aspects of this debate. For example, for many developing nations who are dependent on tourism, a tourist taxation policy has been shown to contribute as much as half of all local tax revenues. Consequently, taxation, which is usually integral to the sovereign rights of the destination nation, can effectively compensate for the leakages of local revenue in terms of imported infrastructure and human resources. The island of Hainan is a popular tourist destination in southern China. In early 2009, Hainan was strategically designated by the Chinese central government as an International Tourism Island. This included the introduction of a number of innovative reform policies that are aimed to develop Hainan into a world-class destination by 2020. The policy that has aroused the most widespread public attention is the implementation of a tax rebate for goods purchased on Hainan, which was introduced in 2011. Given the significance of the tax rebate arrangements to Hainan, and the importance of the national tourism policy to China as a whole, research is required to investigate the impact of this tax rebate policy. This study intends to fulfill this research objective by exploring and modeling the major factors that are integral to the economic impact of the tax rebate policy on Hainan. We then evaluate the impact of the tax rebate policy on tourism demand for Hainan. An econometric model is used in this study to investigate the impact of the newly initiated goods tax rebate policy on tourism development on Hainan. In particular, we have integrated the Auto Regressive and Moving Average （ARMA） model into a time series approximation and analysis. The results indicate that the goods tax rebate policy has had a significant influence on the tourism receipts of Hainan. The domestic tourism receipts of Hainan from May 2010 to April 2012 include the disposable income of the domestic tourists, the CPI level of Hainan, as well as the introduction of the goods tax rebate policy. Specifically, before the introduction of the goods tax rebate policy, an increase of 0. 81094% in domestic tourism receipts is recorded for every 1% growth in the disposable income of the domestic tourists. However, after the introduction of the goods tax rebate policy, there is a rise of 0. 78243% of domestic tourism receipts for every 1% growth in disposable income. While tax rebate and exemption treatments are not uncommon in many destinations around the world, they have so far only experienced minimal use in China's Mainland. In the People＇ s Republic of China, a socialist market economy is being formed that is still characterized by strong state control that places priority on production and export, as well as keeping restrictions on the free movement of people and capital. Consequently, the goods tax rebate policy that is currently in place on Hainan can be deemed as being in many ways revolutionary. Furthermore, given the growing international importance of the development of China＇ s tourism industry, the results of this study may also be relevant in a number of international contexts.