中国燃料油市场现状与展望

China′s Fuel Oil Market Today and Outlook

随着我国经济的进一步发展和炼油深加工能力的大幅提高,以及国家政策的不断调整,我国燃料油供需结构发生明显变化。我国燃料油消费主要集中在船用燃料油、炼化原料深加工,化工、建材和轻工行业,以及电力、制造等领域。近年来,船用燃料油连续多年成为我国最大的燃料油用户,2012年占同期消费总量的49%;其次是炼化行业燃料油需求,主要用于地方炼厂的加工原料,占消费总量的40%;建材和轻工行业等工业燃料油,占消费总量的11%;而工业与电力行业的燃料油需求持续萎缩,市场份额逐年下降,特别是电力行业,2012年燃料油消费量仅为30×104t左右,占比不足1%。未来,受燃料油消费结构因素影响,我国燃料油消费仍主要集中在船用油与炼化行业两大板块。受消费税新政实施的影响,尽管中国原油一次加工能力连年提高,但燃料油产出率或将长期维持在较低水平。需求方面,预计未来几年,原料深加工用燃料油仍是燃料油消费的主力军;工业用燃料油的需求仍将呈现继续下滑的趋势;船用燃料油的需求将稳步上升,其价格有继续走高的可能。

Significant change has taken place in the relationship between China′s fuel oil supply and demand along with economic growth,the dramatic improvement of the country′ s deep crude processing capacity and the continuous adjustment of national policies.In China,fuel oil is largely used in vessels,deep processing of refining materials,chemical and building material production and light industry as well as the electricity and manufacturing industries.In recent years,vessels have been the largest consumers of fuel oil in China,which accounted for 49% of the country′s fuel oil consumption in 2012,followed by the oil refining industry（primarily local refineries using it as processing feedstock）,which accounted for 40% of the country′s fuel oil consumption,and the building material industry and the light industry,which together accounted for 11%.The fuel oil demand from the electricity and manufacturing industries has been shrinking continuously and the share they accounted for has been a story of constant contraction.Particularly,the electricity industry consumed only about 30×104t of fuel oil in 2012,accounting for less than 1% of the country′s total fuel oil consumption.In the future,vessels and the oil refining industry will remain the two major consumers of fuel oil in China affected by the change in the country′s fuel oil consumption structure.Although China′s primary crude processing capacity has been growing steadily,affected by the new consumption tax,the yield of fuel oil may stay at a low level for a long period of time.On demand,the deep crude processing sector is expected to remain one of the major fuel oil consumers over the next few years.The demand for industrial-use fuel oil will keep declining and that for vessel-use fuel oil will grow steadily.The price of vessel-use fuel oil is likely to continue to rise.