劳动力转移与城市劳动力集聚的最优规模——基于地级城市的面板数据

Labor Transfer and the Optimal Scale of Urban Labor Convergence——Based on the Prefecture-level City's Panel Data

本文使用2004年-2009年我国286个地级城市的面板数据,从劳动力集聚与城市劳动生产率关系的视角,对我国城市劳动力集聚规模是否达到最优进行了实证检验。结论显示,我国城市的劳动生产率同劳动投入呈现倒U关系,不同产业类型城市的最优劳动力集聚规模并不相同。与估算出的劳动力集聚的最优规模相比,我国大部分城市并没有达到劳动力集聚的最优规模。劳动力市场均衡的分析显示,我国需求扩张政策带来的工资上涨效应大于劳动力集聚效应,且需求扩张政策带来的劳动力集聚效应有个极值,因此,我国城市经济发展所"提倡"的投资扩张政策很难使我国城市达到劳动力集聚的最优规模。

By using panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2009,this paper positively tests whether Chinese urban labor convergence has reached the optimal level from the perspective of the relationship between labor convergence and urban labor productivity. The conclusion shows that China's urban labor productivity and labor input presents an inverted U-shaped relationship. The cities that have different types of industries have not the same scale of optimal labor convergence. Compared with the optimal scale of the labor convergence,most of our cities do not reach the optimal scale of the labor convergence. The analysis of the labor market equilibrium shows that labor agglomeration effect of demand expansion policy is greater than that of rising wages and the labor convergence efficiency brought by demand expansion policy has an extremum. Therefore,the investments expansion policy ' advocated' by Chinese urban economic development makes it difficult for Chinese cities to reach the optimal scale of China's urban labor convergence.