大连湾海底隧道风险评估及对策研究

Study on risk assessment and control of Dalian bay subsea tunnel

以大连湾海底隧道为背景,针对工程可行性研究阶段的推荐方案,按照不同的施工方法对风险进行识别和分析,并且采用风险判断矩阵和专家调查的方法对各方案的风险进行评估.另外,采用层次分析的方法,从技术、经济、安全和环境影响等因素出发,对各施工方法进行风险评价,认为两种推荐轴线均采用沉管方案时其综合风险最小.根据风险评估的结果及大连湾海底隧道的工程特点,提出了相应的风险控制措施,为工程相关决策和方案的确定提供参考.

Based on the recommended scheme of Dalian Bay subsea tunnel during the stage of the feasibility of the project, we identify and analyze the construction risks of the engineering according to dif- ferent construction methods, and evaluate the risk of each scheme with the method of judgment matrix and the expert investigation. Besides, risks of different construction methods in each scheme are compared by using AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） method from technic, economic, safety and environmental impact. The results show that the comprehensive risk of immersed tunnel is lower in both the two schemes. On the basis of the results of risk assessment and engineering characters of Dalian Bay subsea tunnel, we put forward corresponding risk control measures in order to provide reference for the determination of the related decision and construction scheme.