新疆白杨河西岸地下水水源地扩大开采可能性论证

A Study on the Possibility of Groundwater Exploitation in West Bank of Baiyang River

根据白杨河西岸地下水水源地的开采量及动态资料,分析水源地的水文地质特征,利用数理统计理论与方法,建立多元线性回归与非线性回归方程,通过拟合精度检验,证明非线性回归方程最适宜该水源地扩大开采的地下水资源预报。根据开采的变化过程,1983年实际开采量接近稳定开采阶段的平均水平,则把1983年开采量1 391×104m3确定为正常开采条件下的地下水开采量;把地下水位降低到承压含水层顶板时,极限的地下水开采量为1 856×104m,为水源地应急供水提供定量依据。

By analyzing the production performance and hydrological characteristics of groundwater in west bank of Baiyang river, the paper builds a multiple linear regression equation and a multiple nonlinear regression equation to dem- onstrate the relationship between groundwater resource exploitation and hydrological characteristics. The later fitting preci- sion test suggests that the multiple nonlinear regression equation is the best way to calculate the rational exploiting value. The exploitation data show that, the average exploiting value in 1983, which is 1 391 ×10^4m3, is most approximate to the exploiting value in steady exploitation stage. Therefore, the average exploiting value in 1983 is designated as the exploiting value under normal working condition. Moreover, when the groundwater level is just above the confined aquifer, the maxi- mum exploiting value is 1 856 ×10^4m3.