变参数迟滞瞬时单位线及在洪水预报中的应用

Application of variable-parameter hysteresis instantaneous unit hydrograph in flood forecast

针对迟滞瞬时单位线法和变参数瞬时单位线法在洪水过程分析中的不足之处,在考虑降雨强度对模型参数及水流推移作用的影响基础上,提出了变参数迟滞瞬时单位线法。该法较好地反映了单位线参数随降雨时空分布变化的规律,能较好处理单位线非线性改正问题。将变参数迟滞瞬时单位线法应用于陆水水库洪水预报中,取得了良好的效果,证明该法具有较高的预报精度和应用价值,值得推广应用。

In the light of the defects of hysteresis instantaneous unit hydrograph and variable - parameter instantaneous unit hy- drograph, by considering the influences of precipitation intensity on flood forecast model parameters and flood propagation, varia- ble - parameter hysteresis instantaneous unit hydrograph is put forward, which well reflects the variation law of unit hydrograph parameters with the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation and treat nonlinear correction of unit hydrograph with good ac- curacy. The variable - parameter hysteresis instantaneous unit hydrograph was applied in flood forecast of Lushui Reservoir and satisfactory results were obtained, proving that the method has satisfactory forecast accuracy and application value.