中国地震灾害损失评估:超概率曲线方法与经验数据

On Evaluating China' s Earthquake Losses: the Exceedance Probability Curve Method and the Empirical Data

我国是地震灾害频发的国家,曾遭受重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。地震灾害损失曲线能够反映地震灾害损失分布情况,对于在事前评估中国地震灾害风险,更好地开展防灾减灾工作有非常重要的意义。本文根据超概率曲线理论,提出一种在有限经验数据的基础上,通过计算机模拟生成长时期大样本的模拟灾害事件,以此构建年度地震灾害损失超概率曲线的方法;并且运用1990年-2011年间中国大陆地区历次地震灾害事件的经验数据,分别建立单起地震灾害损失分布模型和年度成灾地震发生次数分布模型,并通过随机循环抽样模拟生成1000年的中国地震损失事件,构建出中国年度地震灾害损失超概率曲线。

China is a country suffering from frequent earthquake disasters, which have caused serious casualties and losses. The earthquake loss curve, which can reflect the distribution of losses brought by earthquake disasters, is very useful in the ex-ante evaluation of China＇ s earthquake risk, and is very important in improving disaster prevention and reduction. Based on the exceedance probability theory and taking into account limited empirical data, this article developed a method that used computer simulation to generate a long period, large sample simulated earthquake loss sequence, which could be used in constructing the exceedace probability curve of annual earth- quake losses. Then, this method was applied to the empirical data of all the earthquake loss events occurred during 1990 to 2011 in China's Mainland,and the loss distribution model of single earthquake loss event and the frequency distribution model of annual earthquake loss event occurred were built. Based on these two models, a simulated 1000 year earthquake loss sequence was generated through the random circular sampling. Using the simulated sequence, the exceedance probability curve of China＇ s annual earthquake losses was finally constructed.