中国城镇居民预防性储蓄实证研究

An Empirical Study of Precautionary Savings of Urban and Township Inhabitants in China

本文选择中国城镇居民 1 991— 1 998年间平行面数据 ,采用工具变量和广义矩估计方法 ,对预防性储蓄模型进行估测 ,研究结果表明我国城镇居民存在显著的预防性储蓄动机。本文第二部分对国内外同类研究扼要综述 ,并着重介绍Dynan的预防性储蓄模型。第三部分是对本研究中所采用的数据及估测方法的说明 ,最后给出本研究对中国城镇居民预防性储蓄动机的实证研究结果 ,以及对居民预防性储蓄产生原因所作的理论分析。

This paper selects the panel data of Chinese urban and township inhabitants from 1991 to 1998 by using instrumental variables and GMM(generalized method of moments) to estimate the precautionary savings model.The research results reveal that Chinese urban and township inhabitants have obvious precautionary savings motivation.The second section of this paper briefly reviews the similar studies conducted in China and abroad,focusing on Dynan's precautionary savings model.The third section explains the data and the estimation method adopted in this study.The last section presents the results of the empirical study of the precautionary savings of Chinese urban and township inhabitants and the theoretical analysis of factors that cause the Inhabitants' precautionary savings.