基于云模型的射击精度合格率及可靠性评估方法

Evaluation Method of Shooting Accuracy Rate and Reliability Based on Cloud Model

为解决射击精度合格率及可靠性评估中试验数据不足的问题,引入云模型描述射击精度的方法评估射击精度合格率及可靠性。该方法选用云模型的正向云发生器模拟弹着点在靶标上的分布情况,用散布圆半径R50度量方法对射击精度进行了评定。通过计算射击精度合格率及可靠性评估条件概率,应用贝叶斯理论实现了对射击精度可靠性评估。举例对射击精度可靠性进行了评估,确定了评估所需的最小样本量。研究结果可为进一步研究射击精度合格率及可靠性评估提供参考。

The test data are not enough to evaluate the reliability of shooting accuracy rate. To solve the problem,a reliability evaluation method of shooting accuracy based on cloud model was introduced. In this method, Bayes theory and cloud model were applied in the research of reliability evaluation of shooting accuracy rate. The distribution of impact points on target was simulated by forward cloud generator,and shooting accuracy was estimated by Rs0. Shooting accuracy rate and contingent probability were calculated,and then reliability evaluation of shooting accuracy rate was carried out by using Bayes theory. An example was given, and the reliability of shooting accuracy was estimated, and the least number of needed samples was fixed. The results offer reference for further study on the reliability evaluation of shooting accuracy rate.