我国外汇政策稳定物价的效果分析

Effects of China's Foreign Exchange Policies' Effects on Price Stability

长期以来,我国执行"半开半闭"的外汇政策。这意味着,汇率等外汇政策对国内物价的作用机理和作用效果在我国的表现将明显区别于任何开放经济体。研究发现,在影响国内物价的稳定性方面,汇率政策和外汇储备政策存在相互干扰;在影响国内物价稳定性方面,外汇储备政策的影响程度远高于汇率政策,且影响时间长于汇率政策;我国外汇储备的增加在较大程度上冲抵了人民币升值对国内物价的作用效果;过高的外汇储备甚至会扭转人民币升值对国内物价的作用方向。研究结果表明,人民币升值无助于降低国内物价,因而应通过改变长期以来单纯追求外汇储备增长的政策,有效降低现有的外汇储备政策对国内物价稳定性带来的负面冲击。

For a long time, China has followed a ＂half open and half closed＂ foreign exchange policy. It means that the mechanism of foreign exchange policies on price stability in China will be significantly different from those of other open economies. This paper shows that foreign exchange rate policies always interfere with foreign foreign exchange reserve poli exchange reserve policies when maintaining price stability. The effect of cies on price is much stronger than exchange rate policies. The effect on domestic prices by the appreciation of RMB is offset by the increase of foreign exchange reserves. The acting direction of RMB＇s appreciation on domestic prices may be even reversed by excessive foreign exchange reserves. The appreciation of RMB will not be helpful to lower domestic price level. China should not pursue simple growth in foreign exchange reserves. It has to reduce the negative impact on domestic price stability by excessive foreign exchange reserves.