区域抗旱能力评价指标体系和评价模型的构建

Construction of Evaluation Index System and Model for Regional Drought Resistance Ability

根据区域干旱与研究区域自然、社会、经济系统之间相互作用的机理分析,提出了由区域背景特征、水利工程条件、经济社会发展水平、科技生产水平、抗旱组织管理水平5个子系统组成区域抗旱能力评价系统。由上述子系统及其二级评价指标构成区域抗旱能力评价系统的初步指标体系,在专家咨询的基础上,采用模糊层次分析法进行指标筛选,最终构建了区域抗旱能力评价指标体系。用基于信息熵原理的投影寻踪与遗传模糊层次分析法相结合的组合赋权法确定指标权重,用集对分析方法构建了基于联系数的区域抗旱能力评价模型(CW-SPI)。CW-SPI在安徽省的应用结果表明,该区域的整体抗旱能力水平较弱,抗旱组织管理水平亟需提高。

According to the mechanism analysis of interaction between regional drought and regional natural, social, and economic systems, the evaluation system of regional drought resistance ability which consists of five subsystems regional background characteristics, water conservancy project conditions, the level of economic and so- cial development, the level of scientific and technological production and the level of organization and management for drought resistance is presented. The five subsystems and their second-class indexes make up the preliminary in- dex system of the assessment of regional drought resistance ability. The preliminary index system is filtrated with ex- pert advisory information and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and then the final index system of the assessment of regional drought resistance ability is established. Based on the principles of information entropy, the portfolio weighting method combined with projection pursuit and genetic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the index weight, then the assessment model of regional drought resistance ability named CW-SPI for short is estab- lished by using set pair analysis method based on the contact number. The research result of CW-SPI applied to Anhui Province shows that the level of Anhui＇s regional drought resistance ability as a whole is feeblish and the lev- el of organization and management for drought resistance needs to be improved urgently. The index system of CW- SPI can comprehensively and systematically reflects the main factors to affect the ability of regional drought resistance ability. The calculation of CW-SPI is intuitive and fully taps the information of subjective experience and objective data in the evaluation process. CW-SPI can deal effectively with the uncertainty of each evaluation. The result is objective and reasonable.