中国税制结构对经济增长影响的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis on Effect of the China’s Tax Structure to Economic Growth

本文从理论上系统地阐述了税制结构影响经济增长的路径和机理。并在此基础上，利用1994～2011年的时间序列数据，实证分析了1994年分税制改革以来我国税制结构与经济增长的关系。实证结果表明，在我国现行的税制下，直接税对经济增长的影响非常有限，而间接税对经济增长具有正向促进作用。我国的税制改革及结构调整，应以转变政府职能理论及税收中性理论为指导，以经济结构调整和转变发展方式为主线，合理安排直接税与间接税的比重，使整个税收对市场的影响逐步转为中性，以充分发挥市场机制对资源的基础性配置作用，促进我国经济的持续健康发展。

This paper systematically elaborates the path and mechanism in theory that the tax structure affects the economic growth. By using the relevant macroeconomic and tax data from 1994 to 2011 yeats, we conduct an empirical analysis about the relationship betwecn the tax structure and economic growth in China since the 1994＇s Tax Shaving Reform. The resuflt shows that the indirect tax can promote economic growth, however, the influence of the direct tax is very limited. Therefore, the new round of China＇s tax system reform should be guided by the transformation government function theory and tax neutral theory, with economic restmcturing and transformation d the mode of development as the main line. Through the reasonable arrangement on the proportion of direct tax and indirect tax, we can make the whole tax＇s influence on the market gradually neutral. As a result, the market mechanism can play the key role as the basic configuration way and help China＇s economy to achieve a sustainable and heslthy development