人口结构演变与政府卫生支出问题研究:基于动态面板数据的广义矩估计

Analysis on Evolution of the Demographic Structure and Government Expenditure on Health: based on GMM of dynamic panel data

研究我国人口结构演变对政府卫生支出的影响。利用我国31个省市1998—2011年的动态面板数据,基于广义矩估计方法显示:老年人口抚养比率对政府卫生支出有显著正的影响,少年儿童抚养比率降低也会增加政府卫生支出,而对地区间的影响存在着明显的差异。其中,老年人口抚养比和少年人口抚养比对东部地区的影响均显著为正,对中部地区影响不显著,而对西部地区的影响分别为正和负。因此,要进一步提高政府卫生支出在卫生总费用中的比重,对人口老龄化严重的地区,要加大转移支付力度,以缩小地区差异、实现基本公共卫生服务均等化。

To study the influences of the demographic evolution to government expenditure on health by using the method of generalized method of moment（GMM）by dynamic panel data of 31 provinces or cities from 1998 to 2011. The result showed that the elderly dependency ratio had a significant positive impact on government health expenditure, while the reduction of child dependency ratio would increase it. There were clear differences among regions. The elderly and child dependency ratio were both significantly positive for the eastern region, no significant effect for the central, and positive and negative respectively for the western. Therefore, it is needed to further improve the proportion of government health spending in total health expenditure, increase transfer payment, reduce regional differences and achieve the equalization of basic public health services.