卫生总费用、物质资本投入与经济增长关系实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship of Total Health Expenditure, Physical Capital Investment and Economic Growth

目的:分析我国国内生产总值、卫生总费用、物质资本投入3个变量间关系,为我国卫生经济政策制定及分配制度改革提供依据。方法:采用1978—2011年统计年鉴数据,建立VAR模型研究变量间动态关系。结果:通过单位根检验得出模型较稳定,3个变量间有Granger关系,通过脉冲响应函数得出:GDP增加会引起卫生费用和物质资本投入增加,物质资本与卫生费用变化具有反向关系等。结论:卫生总费用与物质资本相比具有更强经济增长效应,政府应合理分配卫生费用,从提高劳动者素质角度提高物质资本的社会效益从而促进经济增长。

Objective： By analyzing the three variables relationship of GDP, total health expenditure and physical capital input, to provide basis for health economic policy and distribution system reform in China. Methods： Using the data from 1978 to 2011, the VAR model of the dynamic relationship is established. Results： The establishment of VAR model is stable by unit root test, there is Granger relation between the 3 variables, the result of the impulse response function is obtained that GDP will increase the input of health costs and physical capital, and physical capital and health expenditure have a reverse relation. Conclusion： Total health expenditure has greater effect on economic growth compared with physical capital, the government should allocate health costs, improve social benefits from the prospective of improving the quality of workers to promote economic growth.