基于社会网络分析理论的恐怖组织网络研究综述

Review of the research on the terrorist networks based on social network analysis

恐怖组织网络研究对于了解恐怖组织结构、有效打击恐怖活动具有十分重要的意义.近年来,社会网络分析方法在恐怖组织网络研究中得到广泛关注和成功应用.本文对恐怖组织网络模型的构建方法和分析方法进行了综述.首先,从建模视角、建模工具及数据获取方法三个方面对恐怖组织网络模型的构建方法进行了讨论和评价.然后,将恐怖组织网络分析方法归纳为静态分析和动态分析两大类.在静态分析中,重点分析和评价了网络拓扑结构及特征、核心目标识别、抗毁性评估及瓦解策略三种方法;在动态分析中,主要对恐怖活动态势评估、组织结构演化与绩效评估、空间关联分析三种方法进行了论述.最后,指出现有研究存在的不足以及未来值得研究的问题.

Terrorist networks research is of great significance to understand terrorist organization structure and effectively fight terrorism. In recent years, social network analysis （SNA） has gained extensive atten- tion and successful application in studying the terrorist networks. In this paper, the modeling methods and analysis methods of the terrorist networks are reviewed respectively. Firstly, different viewpoints, tools and data acquisition approaches for modeling terrorist networks are discussed and evaluated. Secondly, the methods on terrorist networks analysis are classified into two categories： static and dynamic analysis. In static analysis, three methods including network topology and features, key target identification, and terrorist networks invulnerability analysis and its disintegrating strategies are analyzed and evaluated em- phatically. As for dynamic analysis, three methods are discussed, including terrorist activities situation assessment, organizational structure evolution and performance assessment, and spatial correlation analy- sis. Finally, the shortcomings in previous studies are pointed out, and some problems worthy of studying in the future are also addressed.