基于契约的计划生育策略的建模分析

Modeling analysis of contract-based family planning strategy

提出了一种基于契约的计划生育策略.依据该策略,公民可在结婚时通过契约形式自由选择成功生育一个男孩,一个女孩,或者两个孩子作为终止生育的条件.用概率分析和随机过程分析的手段从数学上论证了这项策略的可行性.结果表明,该策略在满足公民对生育子女性别或数量的基本选择权基础上,使得一对夫妇的平均生育数量接近2,可以总体上保证人口数量的平稳,也不会造成男女性别比例的失衡.

A contract-based family planning strategy is proposed. According to this strategy, when getting married, citizens are allowed by the form of contract to choose, as the precondition of terminating having children, to successfully give birth to one boy, one girl, or two children. The feasibility of this strategy is discussed mathematically by means of probability analysis and stochastic process analysis. And results show that not only does this strategy guarantee the citizens＇ basic right of choosing the gender or number of their children, but it also makes one couple averagely give birth to about 2 children. While the strategy in general makes the population stable, it would not cause ratio imbalance of male to female.