国有企业投资、需求波动及产能利用率关联性分析——基于PVAR模型

Investment Behavior,Capacity Utilization and Demand Fluctuations:an Analysis of Chinese State-owned Enterprises Based on PVAR Model

利用面板数据向量自回归(PVAR)方法,并结合1999～2010年我国31个地区的相关数据分析了国有企业投资行为、产能利用水平以及消费需求之间的影响特征。国有企业投资对需求以及产能利用水平都有着积极的正向影响关系,但是只在短期有效,因此,当面临金融危机这样的外部冲击时,加大国有企业投资是短期内解决经济困境的一个有效方法。此外,需求的波动对投资水平以及产能利用水平均有着较大的积极影响,从长期来看,通过需求的提高拉动中国整体经济增长,实现经济发展模式由投资拉动向需求拉动的转型应是中国经济未来的发展方向。

This paper analyzes the relations among the investment behavior of state - owned enterprises, capaci- ty utilization and consumer demand by PVAR method, combined of China＇ s 31 regions＇ data from1999 to 2010. According to this research, the investment behaviors of state - owned enterprises have a positive effect on demand and capacity utilization, but only in the short term, therefore, when faced with external shocks such as the financial crisis; increasing investment in state -owned enterprises is an effective short -term solution method for economic difficulties. In addition, fluctuations in demand have a greater positive impact on the investment and capacity utili- zation. In the long term, China＇ s overall economic growth is driven by the increased demand, and achieve econom- ic development model driven by investment demand transformation should be the future direction of Chinese econo- my development.