管理者过度自信导致企业过度投资的实证分析——来自中国制造业上市公司2008—2011年的经验证据

Empirical Study of Impacts of Overconfidence of Management on Firms'Over-investing Activities:Based on the Data of Manufacture Industry in China from 2008 to 2011

自2008年以来中国制造业企业开始出现产能过剩,严重地影响企业的经营,而过度投资则是造成产能过剩的一个重要原因。本文采用2008—2011年的数据对我国制造业上市公司过度投资问题进行了实证分析,结果发现在制造业上市公司中:(1)具有过度自信管理层的公司过度投资程度更严重。(2)相比正常的管理层,过度自信的管理层在过度投资时对股权融资现金、债权融资现金流、净融资现金流均表现出敏感性,但是,对自由现金流、经营现金流没有表现出敏感性。这与中国企业重视融资,但使用随意的环境背景密切相关。

Since 2008, the manufacturer industry of China have been in excess capacity, influencing oper- ation of fmus seriously. By selecting data of manufacturer Industry of China from 2008 to 2011, this paper focus on the issues of overinveslment above. The conclusions are that （ 1 ） The corporations with overconfi- dence managements have positive relationships with overinvestment （2） The overconfident managements are sensitive to equity financing cash, debt financing cash and net financing cash when overinvesting, but not to free cash flow and operation cash flow. The consequence has close relationship with the situation that finns of China prefer financing but use financing cash with low efficiency.